Lawmakers swiftly departed Washington after clearing crucial legislation to keep the government operating past the midterm elections, beginning the furious, final stretch of the fall campaign as Democrats and Republicans battle for control of Congress.
House Democrats have the unenviable task of defending a majority that rests on a handful of seats. The work is difficult but easier to accomplish from the comfort of home, where they can spend time with constituents and avoid the nasty politics of Capitol Hill often repulsive to voters. Ditto Senate Democrats, laboring to retain a 50-seat majority made possible only by the tiebreaking vote wielded by Vice President Kamala Harris.
“Yes, of course, they should get home,” Democratic strategist Dane Strother said. “One thing about candidates, consistently, from both parties — in all the decades I’ve done this: You need ask people for their vote and tell them, ‘Thank you.’”
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Republicans were just as eager to hit the campaign trail and press their offensive against the Democrats. That helps explain Senate Republicans declining to filibuster passage of a 10-week “continuing resolution” that keeps the government running at current funding levels well past Election Day. The bill also provided $12 billion in military and economic aid to Ukraine sought by President Joe Biden, plus supplemental expenditures for a few domestic priorities.
Free from the burdens of legislating for the final five weeks of the midterm campaign, Senate Republicans can focus solely on raising money for targeted races in Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire, and Nevada, where they hope to oust Democratic incumbents, as well as Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where they are defending turf already held.
Sens. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) and Maggie Hassan (D-NH) and Sens. Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Ron Johnson (R-WI) all appear to have the upper hand versus Republican and Democratic challengers, respectively. But they no doubt prefer to be home pitching voters on their reelection than embroiled in some Washington food fight. That is likely the case as well for vulnerable Democratic incumbents such as Sens. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV).
It would certainly illustrate why Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) scrapped plans to call the chamber into session for mid-October floor votes.
“Members always think that being home is better than being in D.C., which is oxymoronic given that they were elected to do the people’s work in D.C.,” Republican strategist Jim Dornan said. “But being home to campaign is usually the prudent decision, given that’s what the voters want: to see and engage with their congressmen.”
In the House, Republicans had the luxury of being able to vote against the legislation ensuring there would be no government shutdown ahead of the midterm elections, which they did almost en masse Friday, without risking their ability to leave Washington and spend the next 39 days focused strictly on campaigning. Clearly, Democrats see no benefit to sticking around and trying to push through more legislation before the Nov. 8 elections.
Strategically, House Democrats’ decision to skip town, even at the expense of passing potentially popular legislation to prohibit lawmakers from buying and trading stocks, seems prudent.
The map of districts that will determine the party with the speaker’s gavel in the 118th Congress is a minefield for Democrats, notwithstanding their fresh optimism about avoiding catastrophic losses sparked by a late summer resurgence. It includes 16 seats won by President Donald Trump in 2020, 28 seats Biden won by 10 percentage points or less, and 30 seats the president won by more than 10 points.
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Even with those 30 seats presumed likely to hold for the Democrats, that leaves 16 in serious jeopardy and an additional 28 that could be competitive down the stretch — for a total of 44 that fall into the danger zone. To be sure, Democrats might stem their losses and avoid a blowout.
But this analysis from Cook Political Report with Amy Walter House guru Dave Wasserman explains the challenge Democrats face vis-a-vis holding the majority. “212 seats at least Lean R, 193 at least Lean D and 30 Toss Ups,” he tweeted. “That means Rs only need to win 20% of Toss Ups to win control, Ds need to win 83% to hold the majority.”